在微观分析框架下,笔者得出政策建议主要有:
第一,在银行系统性风险发生时,不良资产降低银行资产价格,降低其贷款供应量,使得整个社会投资下降。这个风险传染规律体现出银行业典型的顺经济周期的特点,经济繁荣时,贷款和投资放大;而在经济萧条时,贷款和投资萎缩。因此,笔者认为能否探索一种抵御银行系统性风险机制,在经济过度繁荣时,压制贷款和投资;而在经济过度萧条时,鼓励银行贷款与投资,控制资产下降,提高银行抵御风险能力。
第二,改善经济环境,提高企业的抗风险能力,减少违约的可能性。关注银行投资的渠道,定期发布银行的投资方向和数量。追本溯源,从源头上控制银行系统性风险。从微观层面上说,银行只是为了获取利润最大化的一个企业。其特殊性在于其的金融中介地位,其利润来自于资产的价格套利。经济环境的改善才能改变银行和企业之间投资的风险,降低银行系统性风险。
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